ASML Q3 2026 results: record sales, and a warning that it cannot make enough machines for 2027 and 2028

ASML, the Dutch company that makes the machines used to print the most advanced chips, reported record quarterly sales of €11.7bn on 14 October. It also said it can’t make enough of them. In the results statement, chief executive Christophe Fouquet said ASML now expects “that our supply as currently planned for both 2027 and 2028 will not fully meet the demand of our customers.”

That matters well beyond ASML. Every advanced AI chip, from NVIDIA’s GPUs to Google’s TPUs, is made on ASML’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines at TSMC, Samsung or Intel. High-bandwidth memory from SK hynix, Samsung and Micron needs them too. If ASML can’t ship enough machines, chipmakers can’t add capacity as fast as AI companies want, however much money they have.

The results

Sales rose 55% from a year earlier. Net income beat forecasts by a wide margin: CNBC reported a consensus of €4.1bn, from LSEG. Part of the gap is a one-off: the financial statements show a €509.7m gain on equity investments, which chief financial officer Roger Dassen tied on the earnings call to a higher valuation of ASML’s stake in Mistral AI. Sales were slightly below LSEG’s €11.72bn consensus.

For the fourth quarter, ASML guided to sales of €14.2bn to €15.2bn and a gross margin of about 57%. It now expects 2026 sales of €44bn to €45bn. That range has risen at every update this year, from €34bn to €39bn in January.

The supply warning

ASML has been raising capacity all year. In July, it said it would add 30% to its 2026 capacity of about 65 low-NA EUV machines in 2027, and was looking at another 30% for 2028. That works out to roughly 85 machines in 2027 and 110 in 2028 (our arithmetic). In October it said even that won’t be enough, and that it is “investigating ways to increase capacity for 2028 beyond the 30% increase we previously communicated.” Reuters reported on 15 October that ASML was looking at perhaps a dozen more EUV machines a year on top of its 2028 plan.

Fouquet said in the statement that some customers want to book even further ahead: “In light of their demand visibility, some customers are expressing an interest in placing orders with us for 2029 and even 2030.” In a video released with the results, he said: “Customers are asking us every single day to get more tools,” Bloomberg reported.

Dassen also told analysts that ASML will raise prices on its most critical products, with some effect in 2027 and the full effect from 2028.

What the filings show that the headline doesn’t

ASML stopped publishing quarterly order bookings at the start of 2026, so there is no orders figure to check the “order book momentum” against. Its balance sheet offers a clue instead. Non-current contract liabilities rose from €3,570m to €9,301m in the quarter, an increase of €5.7bn (our calculation from the balance sheet). Contract liabilities are mainly money customers have paid in advance, and the non-current part relates to deliveries more than a year away. So customers paid ASML billions of euros up front during the quarter for machines it will ship from late 2027 onwards. That is a hard number behind the “sold out” talk.

Three other points from the filings:

1. China is shrinking as a share of sales. Customers in China were 36.1% of ASML’s sales in 2024 and 29.1% in 2025, according to its annual report. Dassen said on the call that ASML expects China to be about 20% of sales this year. ASML is barred from selling EUV machines to China.
2. Free cash flow was €11.4bn in the quarter, helped by customer prepayments. ASML bought back about €4.1bn of its own shares in the quarter and will pay an interim dividend of €1.88 on 4 November.
3. High-NA EUV, the next generation of machines, is still a small part of sales. ASML recognised one High-NA system in the quarter.

How the shares moved

ASML trades in Amsterdam and, as American depositary shares, on Nasdaq. The two moved in opposite directions on results day.

Amsterdam closes before most of the US trading day, and the US close on 14 October came during the CoreWeave sell-off that hit chip and AI stocks, including TSMC the next day.

Analysts mostly kept their ratings. JPMorgan kept Overweight and trimmed its price target from $2,400 to $2,350 on 15 October, The Fly reported. Citi kept Buy and raised its target from €2,200 to €2,300, in a note dated 15 October, as reported by GuruFocus.

What to watch

• Fourth-quarter results. ASML reported its last full-year results on 28 January 2026. It will give a 2027 gross margin outlook then, Dassen said on the call.
• Capital Markets Day on 10 June 2027, ASML’s next long-term update for investors.
• Chipmakers’ capital spending plans for 2027. TSMC, Samsung and Intel set the demand that ASML says it can’t fully meet.

Our take

ASML FAQ

What did ASML say about supply in 2027 and 2028? In its Q3 2026 results on 14 October, ASML said its planned supply for 2027 and 2028 “will not fully meet the demand of our customers”, and that it is looking at raising 2028 capacity beyond the 30% increase it had already announced.

Why does ASML matter for AI? ASML is the only maker of EUV lithography machines, which are needed to manufacture the most advanced chips, including AI accelerators and high-bandwidth memory.

Why did ASML shares fall after record results? Its Amsterdam shares rose 1.2% on results day, then fell 4.2% on 15 October. The Nasdaq-listed shares fell 3.9% on 14 October amid a broader sell-off in AI-related stocks. ASML’s results also showed a sales figure slightly below consensus, and part of its profit came from a one-off investment gain.

When does ASML report next? ASML hasn’t confirmed the date in its filings. It reported fourth-quarter results on 28 January 2026 last year.